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 | Security Council Presidency in 2009
SC membership
*No discussion held since 2005 |  |  |
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http://kr.blog.yahoo.com/hoonsolo/trackback/319/18475
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Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - update 66Weekly updateIn the temperate regions* of the northern hemisphere, influenza activity remains widely variable. In North America, the United States is reporting increases in influenza-like-illness activity above the seasonal baseline, most notably in the southern, southeastern, and parts of the northeastern United States. In Canada, influenza activity remains low. In Europe and Central Asia influenza activity remains low overall, except in France, which is reporting increases in influenza-like-illness activity (for week 37) above the seasonal epidemic threshold. Geographically localized influenza activity is being reported in several countries (Austria, Georgia, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, and Israel). In Japan, influenza activity remains stably increased above the seasonal epidemic threshold with the most notable increases being reported on the southern island of Okinawa.
In the tropical regions of the Americas and Asia, influenza transmission remains active. Geographically regional to widespread influenza activity continues to be reported throughout much of South and Southeast Asia, with increasing trends in respiratory diseases being reported in India and Bangladesh. Geographically regional to widespread influenza activity continues to be reported for the tropical regions of Central and South America without a consistent pattern in the trend of respiratory diseases (continued increases are being reported in Bolivia and Venezuela).
In the temperate regions* of the southern hemisphere, influenza activity continues to decrease or has returned to the seasonal baseline in most countries. In Australia, later affected areas are also now reporting declining levels of influenza-like-illness. In South Africa, influenza activity appears to have recently passed over the second peak (the first peak was due to seasonal influenza A (H3N2) and second peak was due to pandemic (H1N1) 2009).
WHO Collaborating Centres and other laboratories continue to report sporadic isolates of oseltamivir resistant influenza virus. Twenty six such virus isolates have now been described from around the world, all of which carry the same H275Y mutation that confers resistance to the antiviral oseltamivir but not to the antiviral zanamivir. Of these, 12 have been associated with post-exposure prophylaxis, five with long term oseltamivir treatment in patients with immunosuppression. Worldwide, over 10,000 clinical samples and isolates of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus have been tested and found to be sensitive to oseltamivir. WHO will continue to monitor the situation closely in collaboration with its partners.
Pandemic (H1N1) influenza virus continues to be the predominant circulating influenza virus, both in the northern and southern hemisphere. See below for detailed laboratory surveillance update.
*Countries in temperate regions are defined as those north of the Tropic of Cancer or south of the Tropic of Capricorn, while countries in tropical regions are defined as those between these two latitudes. Weekly update (Virological surveillance data) Qualitative indicators (Week 29 to Week 36: 13 July - 6 September 2009)The qualitative indicators monitor: the global geographic spread of influenza, trends in acute respiratory diseases, the intensity of respiratory disease activity, and the impact of the pandemic on health-care services. Human infection with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus: updated interim WHO guidance on global surveillanceA description of WHO pandemic monitoring and surveillance objectives and methods can be found in the updated interim WHO guidance for the surveillance of human infection with pandemic (H1N1) virus. The maps below display information on the qualitative indicators reported during weeks 29 to 35. Information is available for approximately 60 countries each week. Implementation of this monitoring system is ongoing and completeness of reporting is expected to increase over time. List of definitions of qualitative indicators Geographic spread of influenza activityMap timeline Trend of respiratory diseases activity compared to the previous weekMap timeline Intensity of acute respiratory diseases in the population Map timeline Impact on health care servicesMap timeline Laboratory-confirmed cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 as officially reported to WHO by States Parties to the IHR (2005) as of 13 September 2009Map of affected countries and deaths The countries and overseas territories/communities that have newly reported their first pandemic (H1N1) 2009 confirmed case(s) since the last web update (No. 65) as of 13 September 2009 are:
Malawi.
Region | Cumulative total | as of 13 September 2009 | | Cases* | Deaths | WHO Regional Office for Africa (AFRO) | 8125 | 40 | WHO Regional Office for the Americas (AMRO) | 124126 | 2625 | WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) | 10533 | 61 | WHO Regional Office for Europe (EURO) | over 52000 | at least 140 | WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia (SEARO) | 25339 | 283 | WHO Regional Office for the Western Pacific (WPRO) | 76348 | 337 | | | | Total | over 296471 | at least 3486 | *Given that countries are no longer required to test and report individual cases, the number of cases reported actually understates the real number of cases.
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Day Deaths Date 0 48 Oct-31 2 60 Nov-02 3 67 Nov-03 4 86 Nov-04 5 95 Nov-05 6 109 Nov-06 7 135 Nov-07 8 155 Nov-08 9 174 Nov-09 10 189 Nov-10 11 213 Nov-11 12 239 Nov-12 13 265 Nov-13 14 282 Nov-14 15 299 Nov-15 16 315 Nov-16
Assume an exponential growth model
log(Deaths) = d0 + r*Day
r = 0.123891 daily growth rate is 13.91% R^2 = 0.980532
Maybe this is the second wave we are waiting for?  
http://www.examiner.com/x-29228-LA-Health-Technology-Examiner~y2009m11d16-Ukraine-flu-death-toll-goes-up--British-labs-test-to-ID-flu-as-H1N1-Spanish-flu-or-something-else
Ukraine flu death toll goes up - British labs test to ID flu as H1N1, Spanish flu, or something else 1 comment Print Email RSS Subscribe Subscribe< id="this29228" ="" style="margin: 0pt; padding: 0pt;" method="post" ="submit('this29228','subscriberbottom29228','examiners','TOPICEXAMINER_29228_LA-Health-Technology-Examiner','29228','29228','LA-Health-Technology-Examiner'); return false;"> Get alerts when there is a new article from the LA Health Technology Examiner. Read Examiner.com's terms of use. Email Address < id="subscriber_email" name="subscriber_email" ="test border" size="50" value="" style="margin: 0pt; padding: 0pt; height: 29px;" ="text">
< id="optIn" name="optIn" =""> Include other special offers from Examiner.com Terms of Use |
| < name="userEdition" value="1" =""> </> function submitForm(form,div,blogtype,subsname,id,blogID,blogURL) { //div = 'subscribeForm'; jQuery.post('/blog/includes/pods/headersubscribe.cfm', { blogtype: blogtype, subsname: subsname, id :id, blogID: blogID, blogURl:blogURL,subscriber_email: jQuery("#subscriber_email").val(), optIn: jQuery("#optIn").attr("checked") },function(data){document.getElementById('myformgoeshere').innerHTML = data ;}); } In the Ukraine, a strain of the flu has infected 1.4 million people. The death toll, according to the Ukraine Health Ministry, is at 315 people as of November 16, 2009. The World Bank Database gives the estimated population for the Ukraine as a little over 46 million. While the percentages do not appear high, the reported symptoms and contagion patterns of this flu are of concern to some doctors. The virus is being tested at the Medical Research Council laboratories, in Britain.
Symptoms of the Ukrainian flu "We don't believe it's H1N1 swine flu. Neither do we know what kind of pneumonia it is," states Ukrainian emergency physician Myron Borysevych. The Daily Mail states that doctors are likening this strain of the flu to the Spanish flu, which included internal hemorrhage and edema in the lungs. World Health Organization Comments about Ukrainian flu
Last week, the World Health Organization team working in the Ukraine stated that there would be a second wave of the epidemic. This prediction appears to be coming true. The Ukraine Health Ministry reports 16 new deaths in the past day alone. Testing of the Ukraine flu virus is underway
Samples of the Ukraine flu virus were provided to a British lab, for testing to conclusively subtype the virus. Learning whether the virus is a mutated form of the H1N1 swine flu, or an entirely new type of flu virus, will help health officials and members of the public take necessary measures for protection from this deadly disease.
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Hurricane Season 2009: Tropical Storm 23W (Western Pacific) 10.26.09 October 26, 2009
A 2-for-1 for NASA's Aqua Satellite: Lupit and 23W in Western Pacific
It seems like a common occurrence this season that there are two tropical cyclones spinning in the Western Pacific Ocean and this week, Lupit and newly formed 23W are proof. NASA's Aqua satellite flew over the Western Pacific early today and captured both storms in one satellite image.
Tropical Storm Lupit is becoming extra-tropical and is expected to track parallel to Japan while remaining at sea, east of the island. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm 23W is approaching Saipan and Andersen Air Force Base and is moving west.
The U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecasts tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific Ocean. The JWTC issued their final warning for Extra-tropical Storm Lupit today, October 26 at 0300 UTC (12 a.m. local time Tokyo). At that time, Lupit had maximum sustained winds near 52 mph and was stirring up rough surf and high waves along eastern Japan's coastline.
Extra-tropical storm Lupit was located approximately 580 nautical miles southwest of Tokyo, Japan, near 28.4 North and 134.8 East. It was moving northeast at 21 mph, and is expected to continue moving in that direction staying in open ocean. Lupit was completing transition to an extra-tropical storm and is also being adversely affected by wind shear (winds blowing at the storm in different levels of that atmosphere, that tear the storm apart).
NASA's Aqua satellite flew over both Lupit and TD23W on October 26 at 3:41 UTC (October 25 at 11:41 p.m. EDT). The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on Aqua captured both a visible and infrared image of the storms. The infrared satellite image confirmed that all of Lupit's deep convection (developing strong thunderstorms) has dissipated, and the most intense precipitation has shifted all to the northeast of the center of circulation, further exposing the center to wind shear. Meanwhile, the image also showed that 23W appeared to be getting well-organized.
Tropical Storm 23W had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph at 11 a.m. EDT on October 26. The storm's center was about 200 nautical miles east of Guam, near 13.4 North and 147.7 East. It was moving west-northwest near 17 mph.
NASA's CloudSat satellite also flew over 23W earlier this morning. CloudSat captured a side view of 23W's clouds on Oct. 26 between 03:43 – 03:46 UTC. CloudSat revealed sustained winds of 27 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1002 millibars when it was centered near 122 North and 151.3 East. Sustained winds have since increased to 40 mph. CloudSat also showed some high, strong thunderstorm cloud tops over 14 kilometers (almost 9 miles) high.
The forecast track from the JTWC takes Tropical Storm 23W between Andersen Air Force Base (island) and the island of Saipan, located north of Andersen. The storm is then forecast to intensify and move west toward the Philippines.
Text credit: Rob Gutro, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
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스티븐 하퍼 캐나다 총리가 이명박 대통령의 초청으로 내달 6∼7일 한국을 방문한다고 청와대가 2일 밝혔다. 이 대통령은 내달 7일 청와대에서 하퍼 총리와 정상회담을 갖고 양국간 '특별동반자관계(special partnership)'의 심화.발전과 통상 및 에너지.자원 협력 등 상호관심사에 대해 의견을 교환할 예정이다.
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